Today’s mortgage and refinance rates
Average mortgage rates moved moderately higher again last Friday. That was the third day of rises in a row. But it’s too soon to conclude that those rates are yet back on their upward trend.
However, markets first thing this morning are suggesting that mortgage rates today might edge higher again. But read on for caveats and further information.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
|Conventional 30 year fixed||3.281%||3.3%||Unchanged|
|Conventional 15 year fixed||2.67%||2.699%||Unchanged|
|Conventional 20 year fixed||3.12%||3.155%||-0.02%|
|Conventional 10 year fixed||2.653%||2.715%||Unchanged|
|30 year fixed FHA||3.325%||4.089%||+0.02%|
|15 year fixed FHA||2.643%||3.287%||Unchanged|
|5/1 ARM FHA||2.643%||3.217%||+0.02%|
|30 year fixed VA||2.933%||3.119%||Unchanged|
|15 year fixed VA||2.781%||3.123%||Unchanged|
|5/1 ARM VA||2.623%||2.426%||+0.02%|
|Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions here.|
Should you lock a mortgage rate today?
Markets don’t move in straight lines. And relatively brief periods of movements in one direction or the other are poor guides to what’s coming next.
In the longer run, I still expect mortgage rates to continue higher overall, punctuated by periods of falls.
So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
- LOCK if closing in 7 days
- LOCK if closing in 15 days
- LOCK if closing in 30 days
- LOCK if closing in 45 days
- LOCK if closing in 60 days
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time last Friday, were:
- The yield on 10-year Treasury notes rose to 1.59% from 1.56%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
- Major stock indexes were higher soon after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
- Oil prices dropped to $79.43 from $80.69 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity.
- Gold prices edged up to $1,864 from $1,859 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
- CNN Business Fear & Greed index — rose to 84 from 82 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones
*A change of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a fraction of 1%. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve their former high levels until things settle down.
So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to rise modestly. But be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
- Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
- Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
- Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
- When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
- Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has narrowed a gap that previously existed
So there’s a lot going on here. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what’s going to happen to mortgage rates in coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?
Last Friday, I wrote, “Sometimes, markets pause after sharp rises and fall back a little. That might happen this time, though not necessarily today [Friday].”
True, it’s not looking likely that it will happen today [Monday], either. However, we’ve recently seen markets changing direction during the day more often than normal. So there are no guarantees amid such volatility.
Tomorrow brings retail sales data for October. And that might affect mortgage rates because it will be an indicator of how the economic recovery is doing. Good numbers would normally push mortgage rates up.
Mortgage rates heading higher
Nobody gets to see into the future. But I believe I have good grounds for believing that mortgage rates will head higher.
In last Saturday’s weekend edition, I laid those out in some detail. But, briefly, four powerful forces are currently aligned to push them higher:
- Persistent and high inflation
- A resurging economic recovery that should get a boost from the $1-trillion infrastructure package
- The Fed gradually withdrawing its support for artificially low mortgage rates
- Lower COVID-19 infection rates. Although those have begun to creep up in recent days, they stood at 81,000 new daily cases yesterday, compared with 285,000 on Sept. 13, according to The New York Times (paywall)
Each of those is working to push mortgage rates higher. And, to me, the main forces trying to drag them lower are much weaker:
- Domestic and global supply chain issues that are slowing productivity and sales
- Poor consumer confidence levels — However, when asked about their own financial outlook rather than that of the general economy, consumers are much more positive
- The future risk of a resurgence in COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations and deaths, perhaps powered by new, vaccine-resistant strains. If lockdowns prove necessary, those would be economically damaging
- The very remote but ever-present possibility of some unexpected catastrophe killing the recovery
Of course, those last four are real concerns that could lead to lower mortgage rates. However, they’d need to get a lot worse to counter the forces trying to push those higher.
Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new, weekly all-time low was set on 16 occasions last year, according to Freddie Mac.
The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.
Since then, the picture has been mixed with extended periods of rises and falls. Unfortunately, since September, the rises have grown more pronounced, though not consistently so.
Freddie’s Nov. 10 report puts that weekly average for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages at 2.98% (with 0.7 fees and points), down from the previous week’s 3.09%. But that didn’t take into account that Wednesday’s sharp rise.
Expert mortgage rate forecasts
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining, current quarter of 2021 (Q4/21) and the first three quarters of 2022 (Q1/22, Q2/22 and Q3/22).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s and Freddie’s were published on Oct. 15 and the MBA’s on Oct. 18.
However, given so many unknowables, the whole current crop of forecasts may be even more speculative than usual.
All these forecasts expect at least modestly higher mortgage rates fairly soon.
Find your lowest rate today
Some lenders have been spooked by the pandemic. And they’re restricting their offerings to just the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.
But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the cash-out refinance, investment mortgage or jumbo loan you want. You just have to shop around more widely.
But, of course, you should be comparison shopping widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.