Today’s mortgage and refinance rates
Apologies for the late publication of today’s mortgage rates report, which was down to a technical issue.
Average mortgage rates climbed quite sharply yesterday. Overall, the past week has been a painful one for those who haven’t yet locked.
And things aren’t getting better. Mortgage rates today look likely to rise again. That’s despite this morning’s official jobs report delivering disappointing headline numbers, though the unemployment rate dropped.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
|Conventional 30 year fixed||3.566%||3.588%||+0.02%|
|Conventional 15 year fixed||2.847%||2.884%||+0.05%|
|Conventional 20 year fixed||3.38%||3.418%||+0.07%|
|Conventional 10 year fixed||2.821%||2.896%||+0.03%|
|30 year fixed FHA||3.607%||4.379%||+0.04%|
|15 year fixed FHA||2.76%||3.409%||+0.04%|
|5/1 ARM FHA||2.676%||3.363%||+0.03%|
|30 year fixed VA||3.301%||3.494%||+0.05%|
|15 year fixed VA||3.094%||3.444%||+0.03%|
|5/1 ARM VA||2.622%||2.636%||+0.01%|
|Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions here.|
Should you lock a mortgage rate today?
Absent new and startlingly different scientific evidence about Omicron, the emergence of a whole new variant or something similarly huge, mortgage rates appear to me to set on an overall upward trajectory for some time to come.
Of course, there will still be days and longer periods when those rates fall. But I’m expecting rises to outweigh those.
So, for now, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
- LOCK if closing in 7 days
- LOCK if closing in 15 days
- LOCK if closing in 30 days
- LOCK if closing in 45 days
- LOCK if closing in 60 days
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 11:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly 9:50 a.m. yesterday, were:
- The yield on 10-year Treasury notes jumped to 1.79% from 1.72%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
- Major stock indexes were mostly lower. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
- Oil prices dropped to $79.03 from $79.96 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
- Gold prices held steady at $1,793 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
- CNN Business Fear & Greed index – fell to 52 from 53 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones
*A change of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a fraction of 1%. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today are likely to rise. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
- Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
- Only “top–tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
- Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements – though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
- When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
- Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what’s going to happen to mortgage rates in coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?
This morning’s official employment situation report for December was disappointing. And the number of new jobs was roughly half that expected. However, the unemployment rate dropped and some markets seemed to seize on that.
There are three powerful forces that are acting to push mortgage rates higher:
- High inflation by comparison with the last few decades
- The Federal Reserve’s accelerated dismantling of its pandemic–era stimulus programs
- A continuing strong economic recovery
Until very recently, the three forces have been kept in check by fears about the Omicron variant of COVID–19. But, for now, those appear to have evaporated. Read Monday’s edition of this daily report to explore markets’ newfound optimism over the COVID–19 pandemic.
So, right now, those three forces have free rein to push mortgage rates higher. Might that change? Of course. But it would probably take something earth–shattering to send those rates tumbling again.
Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new, weekly all–time low was set on 16 occasions last year, according to Freddie Mac.
The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30–year fixed–rate mortgages.
Since then, the picture has been mixed with extended periods of rises and falls. Unfortunately, since September, the rises have grown more pronounced, though not consistently so.
Freddie’s Jan. 6 report puts that weekly average for 30–year, fixed–rate mortgages at 3.22% (with 0.7 fees and points), up from the previous week’s 3.11%.
Expert mortgage rate forecasts
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining, current quarter of 2021 (Q4/21) and the first three quarters of 2022 (Q1/22, Q2/22 and Q3/22).
The numbers in the table below are for 30–year, fixed–rate mortgages. Fannie’s were published on Dec. 20 and the MBA’s on Dec. 21.
Freddie’s were released on Oct. 15. It now updates its forecasts only quarterly. So we may not get another from it until January. And its figures are already looking stale.
However, given so many unknowables, the whole current crop of forecasts may be even more speculative than usual.
Find your lowest rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
“Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.”
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
The information contained on The Mortgage Reports website is for informational purposes only and is not an advertisement for products offered by Full Beaker. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not reflect the policy or position of Full Beaker, its officers, parent, or affiliates.