Today’s mortgage and refinance rates
Average mortgage rates fell again yesterday, though by a much smaller amount than on Monday. And they’re now very close to where they were last Wednesday.
So far this morning, mortgage rates today look likely to be unchanged or barely changed. But, amid such volatility, they could later take off in one direction or the other.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
|Conventional 30 year fixed||5.306%||5.329%||-0.03%|
|Conventional 15 year fixed||4.56%||4.606%||+0.02%|
|Conventional 20 year fixed||5.24%||5.279%||-0.08%|
|Conventional 10 year fixed||4.396%||4.454%||+0.08%|
|30 year fixed FHA||5.375%||6.164%||+0.09%|
|15 year fixed FHA||4.682%||4.969%||Unchanged|
|30 year fixed VA||5.089%||5.305%||-0.04%|
|Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions here.|
Should you lock a mortgage rate today?
Don’t lock on a day when mortgage rates look set to fall. My recommendations (below) are intended to give longer-term suggestions about the overall direction of those rates. So, they don’t change daily to reflect fleeting sentiments in volatile markets.
It’s much too soon to get excited about this week’s falls. We’ve seen much bigger two-day drops just this month. And they were quickly wiped out by even larger rises.
Still, there does seem to be a new sentiment in markets — namely, fear of a recession — that could conceivably cause mortgage rates to increase more slowly or even dip a little.
But I very much doubt we’ll see sustained and worthwhile falls anytime soon. We’ll have to wait and see to be sure.
In the meantime, my personal rate lock recommendations for the longer term remain:
- LOCK if closing in 7 days
- LOCK if closing in 15 days
- LOCK if closing in 30 days
- LOCK if closing in 45 days
- LOCK if closing in 60 days
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:
- The yield on 10-year Treasury notes rose to 2.78% from 2.74%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
- Major stock indexes were higher soon after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
- Oil prices were down to $99.88 from $100.10 a barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
- Gold prices fell to $1,892 from $1,911 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
- CNN Business Fear & Greed index — fell to 31 from 37 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might hardly move. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
- Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
- Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
- Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
- When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
- Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?
Apologies for the late publication yesterday of this daily report. We had a technical glitch.
You can read that report now if you’d like to catch up with my analysis of what’s changed in markets.
But, briefly, I suggested that Wall Street has finally noticed all the economically harmful things happening in the world. Those include:
- The Federal Reserve’s throwing into reverse of its pandemic-era stimulus programs
- Russia’s war in Ukraine
- China’s continuing COVID-19 mass-lockdowns
- Hot inflation at home and across the world
- Continuing supply-chain disruptions
Yes, I thought the same that you’re thinking: “Hang on! All those have been going on for months. Why notice them now?”
My only explanation is that markets have powerful herd instincts. And when some influential herd members are spooked and bolt, everyone else joins the stampede.
Any actual recession could be months or years ahead. But fear of it is enough to drive markets. It’s the same phenomenon that saw mortgage rates rise quickly this year due to fear of the Fed’s plans to reverse its stimulus programs — before those plans are implemented or even fully unveiled.
That fear of a recession might exert downward pressure on mortgage rates. But the Fed is highly likely to push forward with its plans, which are intended to counter inflation. And those should exert upward pressure on those rates.
Tomorrow brings the publication of the first reading of gross domestic product (GDP) figures for the first quarter of this year. And economists are expecting a sharp slowdown.
Those polled by MarketWatch expect annualized growth of 1.0%, compared to 6.9% in the previous quarter. If the actual numbers are as bad as (or worse than) expected, that would reinforce Wall Street’s fears of a recession. And we might see mortgage rates fall further.
But, on Friday, we’ll get another report: the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. And that’s the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation. If that remains stubbornly high, the Fed could act more aggressively to rein in inflation. And that should push mortgage rates higher.
Ho, hum. I wish I could be more helpful over what’s going to happen soon. But I can’t. And I doubt anyone else can.
Read the weekend edition of this daily article for more background.
Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new, weekly all-time low was set on 16 occasions that year, according to Freddie Mac.
The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.
Since then, the picture has been mixed with extended periods of rises and falls. Unfortunately, the rises have grown more pronounced since last September.
Freddie’s Apr. 21 report puts that same weekly average for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages at 5.11% (with 0.8 fees and points), up from the previous week’s 5%.
Note that Freddie expects you to buy discount points (“with 0.8 fees and points”) on closing that earn you a lower rate. If you don’t do that, your rate would be closer to the ones we and others quote.
Expert mortgage rate forecasts
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining three quarters of 2022 (Q2/22, Q3/22, Q4/22) and the first quarter of next year (Q1/23).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were published on Apr. 19, Freddie’s on Apr. 18, and the MBA’s on Apr. 13.
Of course, given so many unknowables, the whole current crop of forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. I’m afraid I’m less optimistic than any of them.
Find your lowest rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
“Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.”
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
The information contained on The Mortgage Reports website is for informational purposes only and is not an advertisement for products offered by Full Beaker. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not reflect the policy or position of Full Beaker, its officers, parent, or affiliates.