Today’s mortgage and refinance rates
Average mortgage rates rose appreciably yesterday, bouncing back toward their highest level since 2009. Don’t believe Freddie Mac’s claim that mortgage rates inched lower over the week ending on Thursday. It was out of date before it was published.
Mortgage rates today might rise again. That follows relatively good news on consumer expenditures and inflation earlier this morning. But things could change as the day progresses.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
|Conventional 30 year fixed||5.412%||5.437%||+0.03%|
|Conventional 15 year fixed||4.603%||4.634%||-0.01%|
|Conventional 20 year fixed||5.447%||5.482%||+0.13%|
|Conventional 10 year fixed||4.429%||4.488%||-0.08%|
|30 year fixed FHA||5.477%||6.214%||+0.14%|
|15 year fixed FHA||4.741%||5.187%||+0.07%|
|30 year fixed VA||5.091%||5.308%||-0.02%|
|15 year fixed VA||4.75%||5.094%||Unchanged|
|Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions here.|
Should you lock a mortgage rate today?
Don’t lock on a day when mortgage rates look set to fall. My recommendations (below) are intended to give longer-term suggestions about the overall direction of those rates. So, they don’t change daily to reflect fleeting sentiments in volatile markets.
Yesterday’s rise in mortgage rates was no more meaningful than recent falls when looking at the underlying trend for those rates. But, so far, that trend remains upward. And we can do no more than hope for some relief.
So, my personal rate lock recommendations for the longer term remain:
- LOCK if closing in 7 days
- LOCK if closing in 15 days
- LOCK if closing in 30 days
- LOCK if closing in 45 days
- LOCK if closing in 60 days
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:
- The yield on 10-year Treasury notes edged up to 2.87% from 2.85%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
- Major stock indexes were lower soon after opening. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
- Oil prices climbed to $106.40 from $102.01 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
- Gold prices inched down to $1,906 from $1,890 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
- CNN Business Fear & Greed index — jumped to 39 from 31 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might increase. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
- Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
- Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
- Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
- When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
- Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?
There are two reasons why this morning’s important economic report, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for March, was potentially critical:
- It’s the inflation report on which the Federal Reserve places most value
- It contains the last inflation data the Fed will see before its crucial two-day meeting next week
This morning’s PCE figures showed the core PCE price index (the favorite Fed measure, and one from which volatile food and energy prices have been stripped out) rising by an annualized rate of 5.2% in March, which was actually slightly better than the 5.3% economists polled by MarketWatch had expected.
That may limit how aggressive the Fed feels it needs to be when it meets next week to decide how to rein in inflation. Don’t get me wrong. It’s still likely to be highly aggressive. But it might not go to the extremes that worse figures today might have provoked.
And there was good news in this morning’s wider report. Consumer spending rose more quickly than expected, confirming the view that the US is far from entering a recession.
Unfortunately, what’s good news for the economy tends to be bad for mortgage rates. And they were rising soon after the report was published.
How come mortgage rates rose yesterday? After all, I’m always saying that those rates typically fall on bad economic news. And the gross domestic product (GDP) report that morning seemed shockingly bad.
Well, the main reason mortgage rates increased was that the GDP numbers were nothing like as terrible as the headline figure suggested. Yes, the economy contracted by an annualized 1.4%, which appeared terrible after 6.9% growth the previous quarter.
But CNN Business yesterday reported why few care:
… economists say Thursday’s ugly — and confusing — GDP report is not a reason for panic, nor a harbinger of an immediate recession. It was distorted by temporary factors, most notably a massive trade deficit due to supply disruptions, that mask underlying strength in the economy.
Markets are more than capable of acting perversely when news breaks. But yesterday wasn’t an example of that.
Read the weekend edition of this daily article for more background.
Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new, weekly all-time low was set on 16 occasions that year, according to Freddie Mac.
The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.
Rates then bumbled along, moving little for the following eight or nine months. But they began rising noticeably that September. Unfortunately, they’ve been shooting up since the start of 2022.
Freddie’s Apr. 28 report puts that same weekly average for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages at 5.10% (with 0.8 fees and points), minutely down from the previous week’s 5.11%.
Note that Freddie expects you to buy discount points (“with 0.8 fees and points”) on closing that earn you a lower rate. If you don’t do that, your rate would be closer to the ones we and others quote.
Expert mortgage rate forecasts
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining three quarters of 2022 (Q2/22, Q3/22, Q4/22) and the first quarter of next year (Q1/23).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were published on Apr. 19, Freddie’s on Apr. 18, and the MBA’s on Apr. 13.
Of course, given so many unknowables, the whole current crop of forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. I’m afraid I’m less optimistic than any of them.
Find your lowest rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
“Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.”
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
The information contained on The Mortgage Reports website is for informational purposes only and is not an advertisement for products offered by Full Beaker. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not reflect the policy or position of Full Beaker, its officers, parent, or affiliates.